Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -240 SMC +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +14 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -6.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -5.2 (+8.8) | 146.4 (-0.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -4.6 (+9.4) | 147.7 (-1.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -5.1 (+8.9) | 146.3 (-0.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -5.7 (+8.3) | 143.5 (+2.5) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 17-1 |
| Home | 12-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 9-3 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.7 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 61.8 |
| Massey | 22.4 (#5) | 15.6 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.07 (#6) | 2.85 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.92 (#6) | 3.70 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.661 (#2) | 0.620 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 42.9 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 40.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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