Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -450 CREI +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +12 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -11.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -9.7 (+2.3) | 148.9 (+3.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -8.4 (+3.6) | 149.8 (+2.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -10.1 (+1.9) | 148.1 (+3.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -9.1 (+2.9) | 149.6 (+2.4) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 25.7 (#2) | 13.9 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.66 (#2) | 2.49 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.69 (#2) | 3.01 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.676 (#1) | 0.592 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.77 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 11.7% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 12.0% |
Game Analysis
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