This will be our year, took a long time to come "This Will Be Our Year" - The Zombies
(1) Auburn Tigers
82 70
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(9) Creighton Bluejays
Rupp Arena (Neutral) · March 22, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread AUB -8.5 Home covered
O/U 148.5 Over
Money AUB -450 / CREI +340
Model Predictions
Spread Total AUB win
Actual AUB +12 152 Won
Massey AUB -11.8 (+0.2)
Massey Totals 150.6 (+1.4)
Bradley-Terry 90%
Weighted B-T 94%
Baseline Plus ML AUB -12.2 (-0.2) 149.8 (+2.2) 87%
Model 4 ML AUB -11.2 (+0.8) 150.1 (+1.9) 86%
Model 3 ML AUB -10.8 (+1.2) 150.6 (+1.4) 85%
Baseline ML AUB -9.9 (+2.1) 151.8 (+0.2) 86%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings AUB CREI
Overall 32-6 25-11
Conference 15-3 15-5
Home 13-2 15-2
Away 8-2 6-6
Neutral 11-2 4-3
Last 5 2-3 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 83.0 75.5
Avg Pts Against 69.4 70.0
Massey 25.7 (#2) 13.9 (#36)
Bradley-Terry 4.66 (#2) 2.49 (#36)
W. Bradley-Terry 5.69 (#2) 3.01 (#38)
RPI 0.676 (#1) 0.592 (#29)
Shooting & Four Factors AUB CREI
FG% 48.2% 47.7%
3PT% 36.6% 34.2%
REB / G 37.3 37.7
OREB / G 11.7 8.5
AST / TO 1.77 1.39
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.7% 56.1%
TOV% 13.5% 18.0%
ORB% 34.3% 26.8%
FT Rate 25.0% 21.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.9% 47.0%
Opp TOV% 17.2% 11.7%
DRB% 70.0% 72.9%
Opp FT Rate 28.5% 12.0%

Game Analysis

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