Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -1600 BAY +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +23 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -10.9 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -9.4 (+13.6) | 140.0 (+15.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -8.1 (+14.9) | 137.6 (+17.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -9.4 (+13.6) | 137.0 (+18.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -9.1 (+13.9) | 138.3 (+16.7) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2023 | DUKE 78 – 70 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 10-10 |
| Home | 17-0 | 13-3 |
| Away | 10-1 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 27.4 (#1) | 16.5 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.18 (#4) | 2.31 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.26 (#5) | 2.96 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.651 (#3) | 0.573 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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