Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Under |
| Money | DUKE -145 BAY +122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +8 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -0.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -0.5 (+8.5) | 153.6 (-5.6) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -0.6 (+8.6) | 148.3 (-0.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -1.4 (+6.6) | 151.7 (-3.7) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -1.4 (+9.4) | 154.4 (-6.4) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 23, 2025 | DUKE 89 – 66 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#15) | 15.1 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#75) | 2.43 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#61) | 2.85 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#86) | 0.597 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 51.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 44.6% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 59.0% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 32.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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