Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | ISU -1800 LIP +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +27 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -13.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -11.8 (+15.2) | 144.8 (-7.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -12.4 (+14.6) | 144.2 (-7.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -11.3 (+15.7) | 144.8 (-7.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -11.3 (+15.7) | 143.4 (-6.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 19.8 (#10) | 6.3 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#23) | 0.73 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.34 (#30) | 1.07 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#33) | 0.548 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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