He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
(3) Iowa State Cyclones
82 55
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(14) Lipscomb Bisons
Fiserv Forum (Neutral) · March 21, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread ISU -14.5 Home covered
O/U 143.5 Under
Money ISU -1800 / LIP +900
Model Predictions
Spread Total ISU win
Actual ISU +27 137 Won
Massey ISU -13.5 (+13.5)
Massey Totals 142.9 (-5.9)
Bradley-Terry 88%
Weighted B-T 91%
Baseline Plus ML ISU -14.6 (+12.4) 144.7 (-7.7) 86%
Model 4 ML ISU -16.5 (+10.5) 145.7 (-8.7) 87%
Model 3 ML ISU -15.9 (+11.1) 143.8 (-6.8) 86%
Baseline ML ISU -14.8 (+12.2) 142.9 (-5.9) 87%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ISU LIP
Overall 25-10 25-10
Conference 13-7 14-4
Home 15-2 15-3
Away 6-5 10-6
Neutral 4-3 0-1
Last 5 3-2 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 80.3 77.0
Avg Pts Against 68.3 68.2
Massey 19.8 (#10) 6.3 (#90)
Bradley-Terry 2.73 (#23) 0.73 (#113)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.34 (#30) 1.07 (#98)
RPI 0.590 (#33) 0.548 (#81)
Shooting & Four Factors ISU LIP
FG% 48.0% 47.2%
3PT% 35.8% 36.7%
REB / G 35.4 34.6
OREB / G 10.3 7.6
AST / TO 1.26 1.50
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.6% 55.9%
TOV% 16.9% 14.5%
ORB% 32.2% 24.0%
FT Rate 29.1% 25.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.4% 48.6%
Opp TOV% 21.8% 15.8%
DRB% 71.6% 73.5%
Opp FT Rate 21.6% 15.0%

Game Analysis

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