Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | ISU -230 MISS +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +13 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | ISU -4.9 (-17.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (+22.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -3.0 (-16.0) | 145.1 (+23.9) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -3.2 (-16.2) | 146.2 (+22.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -3.2 (-16.2) | 147.3 (+21.7) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -4.1 (-17.1) | 145.6 (+23.4) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 20.3 (#10) | 15.4 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#22) | 3.33 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.46 (#23) | 4.18 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#26) | 0.612 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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