I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
(5) Oregon Ducks
81 52
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(12) Liberty Flames
Climate Pledge Arena (Neutral) · March 22, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread ORE -7.5 Home covered
O/U 137.5 Under
Money ORE -340 / LIB +270
Model Predictions
Spread Total ORE win
Actual ORE +29 133 Won
Massey ORE -5.8 (+23.2)
Massey Totals 139.1 (-6.1)
Bradley-Terry 76%
Weighted B-T 77%
Baseline Plus ML ORE -8.4 (+20.6) 139.7 (-6.7) 77%
Model 4 ML ORE -9.5 (+19.5) 141.3 (-8.3) 76%
Model 3 ML ORE -8.0 (+21.0) 139.3 (-6.3) 76%
Baseline ML ORE -7.2 (+21.8) 140.7 (-7.7) 74%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ORE LIB
Overall 25-10 28-7
Conference 12-8 13-5
Home 12-4 12-3
Away 7-4 9-2
Neutral 6-2 7-2
Last 5 4-1 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 76.5 73.7
Avg Pts Against 70.9 65.2
Massey 14.4 (#34) 8.5 (#68)
Bradley-Terry 2.97 (#14) 1.84 (#56)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.50 (#21) 2.29 (#55)
RPI 0.617 (#15) 0.565 (#57)
Shooting & Four Factors ORE LIB
FG% 45.7% 49.0%
3PT% 34.0% 39.5%
REB / G 35.5 31.5
OREB / G 10.2 5.8
AST / TO 1.29 1.59
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.2% 58.4%
TOV% 16.3% 15.3%
ORB% 30.6% 18.9%
FT Rate 25.5% 20.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.1% 45.9%
Opp TOV% 17.6% 16.9%
DRB% 70.8% 72.0%
Opp FT Rate 20.0% 19.3%

Game Analysis

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