Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | ORE -340 LIB +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +29 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -5.8 (+23.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (-6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -5.2 (+23.8) | 140.1 (-7.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -6.8 (+22.2) | 139.8 (-6.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -5.4 (+23.6) | 139.5 (-6.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -4.9 (+24.1) | 141.2 (-8.2) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 14.4 (#34) | 8.5 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#14) | 1.84 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.50 (#21) | 2.29 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#15) | 0.565 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 58.4% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 18.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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