Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | UCLA -240 USU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +25 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -4.0 (+21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-25.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -2.6 (+22.4) | 141.8 (-22.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -1.6 (+23.4) | 136.3 (-17.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -1.9 (+23.1) | 139.6 (-20.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -2.2 (+22.8) | 141.7 (-22.7) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 16.1 (#24) | 12.1 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#32) | 2.40 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.22 (#33) | 2.78 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#42) | 0.595 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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