Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
(7) UCLA Bruins
72 47
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(10) Utah State Aggies
Rupp Arena (Neutral) · March 21, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UCLA -5.5 Home covered
O/U 143.5 Under
Money UCLA -240 / USU +200
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCLA win
Actual UCLA +25 119 Won
Massey UCLA -4.0 (+21.0)
Massey Totals 144.6 (-25.6)
Bradley-Terry 55%
Weighted B-T 61%
Baseline Plus ML UCLA -3.9 (+21.1) 139.1 (-20.1) 68%
Model 4 ML UCLA -2.8 (+22.2) 135.8 (-16.8) 68%
Model 3 ML UCLA -4.1 (+20.9) 141.8 (-22.8) 63%
Baseline ML UCLA -3.4 (+21.6) 143.0 (-24.0) 70%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCLA USU
Overall 23-11 26-8
Conference 13-7 15-5
Home 15-2 15-2
Away 5-5 7-4
Neutral 3-4 4-2
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 74.2 78.8
Avg Pts Against 65.2 70.5
Massey 16.1 (#24) 12.1 (#47)
Bradley-Terry 2.59 (#32) 2.40 (#40)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.22 (#33) 2.78 (#42)
RPI 0.579 (#42) 0.595 (#25)
Shooting & Four Factors UCLA USU
FG% 46.6% 48.4%
3PT% 35.2% 35.8%
REB / G 32.7 34.5
OREB / G 10.8 11.5
AST / TO 1.54 1.59
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.0% 56.0%
TOV% 15.9% 16.0%
ORB% 32.8% 34.6%
FT Rate 23.2% 26.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.5% 51.8%
Opp TOV% 22.8% 20.2%
DRB% 70.8% 69.7%
Opp FT Rate 25.9% 26.0%

Game Analysis

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