Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -450 PUR +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +2 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -7.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (-9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -7.4 (-5.4) | 131.8 (-9.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -5.8 (-3.8) | 127.2 (-5.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -4.9 (-2.9) | 129.3 (-7.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -6.7 (-4.7) | 132.6 (-10.6) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-5 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 13-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 10-0 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 25.1 (#3) | 17.7 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.22 (#5) | 2.93 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.37 (#5) | 3.70 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.650 (#5) | 0.628 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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