They put a hot wire to my head / Because of the things I did and said "Rise" - Public Image Ltd.
(1) Houston Cougars
62 60
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(4) Purdue Boilermakers
Lucas Oil Stadium (Neutral) · March 29, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread HOU -8.5 Away covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Money HOU -450 / PUR +340
Model Predictions
Spread Total HOU win
Actual HOU +2 122 Won
Massey HOU -7.4 (-5.4)
Massey Totals 131.4 (-9.4)
Bradley-Terry 78%
Weighted B-T 84%
Baseline Plus ML HOU -5.9 (-3.9) 129.0 (-7.0) 82%
Model 4 ML HOU -8.5 (-6.5) 126.3 (-4.3) 81%
Model 3 ML HOU -9.7 (-7.7) 130.8 (-8.8) 81%
Baseline ML HOU -9.0 (-7.0) 132.8 (-10.8) 81%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings HOU PUR
Overall 35-5 24-12
Conference 19-1 13-7
Home 16-1 14-2
Away 10-0 5-6
Neutral 9-4 5-4
Last 5 5-0 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.7 77.2
Avg Pts Against 58.6 70.4
Massey 25.1 (#3) 17.7 (#17)
Bradley-Terry 4.22 (#5) 2.93 (#18)
W. Bradley-Terry 5.37 (#5) 3.70 (#17)
RPI 0.650 (#5) 0.628 (#9)
Shooting & Four Factors HOU PUR
FG% 45.7% 48.8%
3PT% 39.8% 38.5%
REB / G 36.5 33.0
OREB / G 12.5 9.9
AST / TO 1.32 1.51
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.6% 56.1%
TOV% 14.4% 15.8%
ORB% 36.6% 32.0%
FT Rate 21.0% 25.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.0% 52.0%
Opp TOV% 21.6% 17.7%
DRB% 71.3% 70.7%
Opp FT Rate 24.1% 21.9%

Game Analysis

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