Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | TENN -230 UCLA +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +9 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | TENN -4.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -4.1 (+4.9) | 132.0 (-7.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -4.4 (+4.6) | 132.1 (-7.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -2.8 (+6.2) | 131.6 (-6.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -4.1 (+4.9) | 132.0 (-7.0) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TENN | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.1 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 21.5 (#6) | 17.0 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.18 (#3) | 2.76 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.33 (#3) | 3.44 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#7) | 0.588 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TENN | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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