Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
(2) Tennessee Volunteers
67 58
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(7) UCLA Bruins
Rupp Arena (Neutral) · March 23, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread TENN -5.5 Home covered
O/U 131.5 Under
Money TENN -230 / UCLA +195
Model Predictions
Spread Total TENN win
Actual TENN +9 125 Won
Massey TENN -4.5 (+4.5)
Massey Totals 124.4 (+0.6)
Bradley-Terry 81%
Weighted B-T 87%
Baseline Plus ML TENN -4.4 (+4.6) 131.3 (-6.3) 78%
Model 4 ML TENN -7.1 (+1.9) 132.0 (-7.0) 77%
Model 3 ML TENN -6.1 (+2.9) 131.5 (-6.5) 75%
Baseline ML TENN -5.8 (+3.2) 131.5 (-6.5) 79%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TENN UCLA
Overall 30-8 23-11
Conference 12-6 13-7
Home 16-1 15-2
Away 6-5 5-5
Neutral 8-2 3-4
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 74.0 74.2
Avg Pts Against 63.1 65.2
Massey 21.5 (#6) 17.0 (#20)
Bradley-Terry 4.18 (#3) 2.76 (#26)
W. Bradley-Terry 5.33 (#3) 3.44 (#24)
RPI 0.636 (#7) 0.588 (#34)
Shooting & Four Factors TENN UCLA
FG% 45.6% 46.7%
3PT% 34.1% 35.4%
REB / G 36.5 32.8
OREB / G 11.4 10.8
AST / TO 1.50 1.57
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.9% 53.1%
TOV% 15.9% 15.9%
ORB% 35.3% 32.8%
FT Rate 26.4% 23.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.7% 49.9%
Opp TOV% 17.8% 22.7%
DRB% 69.8% 70.5%
Opp FT Rate 21.4% 25.4%

Game Analysis

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