Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -32.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -50000 MSM +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +44 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -31.7 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -17.8 (+26.2) | 137.9 (+4.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -18.7 (+25.3) | 138.2 (+3.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -22.8 (+21.2) | 137.2 (+4.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -21.7 (+22.3) | 138.7 (+3.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 12-8 |
| Home | 17-0 | 10-4 |
| Away | 10-1 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 27.0 (#1) | -4.7 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.16 (#4) | 0.01 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.24 (#4) | -0.37 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.650 (#3) | 0.528 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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