We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
(4) Arizona Wildcats
93 65
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(13) Akron Zips
Climate Pledge Arena (Neutral) · March 21, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread ARIZ -13.5 Home covered
O/U 164.5 Under
Money ARIZ -1000 / AKR +600
Model Predictions
Spread Total ARIZ win
Actual ARIZ +28 158 Won
Massey ARIZ -15.0 (+13.0)
Massey Totals 165.8 (-7.8)
Bradley-Terry 77%
Weighted B-T 89%
Baseline Plus ML ARIZ -14.9 (+13.1) 163.5 (-5.5) 85%
Model 4 ML ARIZ -13.9 (+14.1) 165.9 (-7.9) 84%
Model 3 ML ARIZ -16.7 (+11.3) 166.4 (-8.4) 87%
Baseline ML ARIZ -13.9 (+14.1) 164.5 (-6.5) 86%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ARIZ AKR
Overall 24-13 28-7
Conference 14-6 17-1
Home 13-3 16-0
Away 6-5 8-4
Neutral 5-5 4-3
Last 5 3-2 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 82.5 83.4
Avg Pts Against 73.3 76.4
Massey 19.7 (#11) 4.8 (#98)
Bradley-Terry 2.65 (#29) 1.43 (#69)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.51 (#21) 1.38 (#84)
RPI 0.579 (#43) 0.604 (#18)
Shooting & Four Factors ARIZ AKR
FG% 47.3% 47.1%
3PT% 32.4% 36.6%
REB / G 39.6 38.3
OREB / G 12.2 11.9
AST / TO 1.42 1.47
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.9% 55.4%
TOV% 16.2% 16.7%
ORB% 35.9% 33.3%
FT Rate 28.7% 20.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.6% 49.5%
Opp TOV% 16.6% 17.1%
DRB% 71.5% 71.0%
Opp FT Rate 20.8% 24.6%

Game Analysis

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