Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | ARIZ -1000 AKR +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +28 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -15.0 (+13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -12.9 (+15.1) | 166.5 (-8.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -11.4 (+16.6) | 166.8 (-8.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -12.5 (+15.5) | 162.3 (-4.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -11.2 (+16.8) | 164.6 (-6.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 17-1 |
| Home | 13-3 | 16-0 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.5 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 19.7 (#11) | 4.8 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#29) | 1.43 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.51 (#21) | 1.38 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#43) | 0.604 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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