Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -360 HPU +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +12 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -10.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -9.0 (+3.0) | 150.0 (-12.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -8.7 (+3.3) | 146.7 (-8.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -9.0 (+3.0) | 147.7 (-9.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -8.5 (+3.5) | 150.3 (-12.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-2 |
| Home | 14-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 81.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 17.3 (#19) | 6.4 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#23) | 1.41 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#20) | 1.65 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#12) | 0.575 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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