We live on blood / We are Sparta F.C "Theme from Sparta FC" - The Fall
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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67–19 on winners spread MAE 10.1 87 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Alabama @ Purdue +6.3 153.2 81% 78–87 ✓
Nicholls @ Cincinnati +21.3 149.3 86% 49–86 ✓
Elon @ Gardner-Webb +6.6 149.4 77% 79–80 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Old Dominion +0.4 150.6 60% 71–73 ✓
Tulane @ Furman +6.8 143.8 71% 67–75 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Charleston +4.7 168.8 71% 116–119 ✓
Belmont @ Air Force -4.0 124.9 35% 79–71 ✓
Lindenwood @ Robert Morris +12.2 146.4 85% 53–67 ✓
Maine @ Quinnipiac +0.7 148.2 55% 55–58 ✓
West Georgia @ South Florida +8.2 149.1 79% 55–74 ✓
Army @ Marist +6.7 146.8 81% 88–91 ✓
New Hampshire @ Brown +13.7 141.0 85% 58–76 ✓
UAB @ High Point +14.6 148.3 85% 65–68 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ South Carolina Upstate -1.2 162.1 41% 89–85 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Princeton +8.2 151.8 71% 73–68 ✗
Fordham @ Manhattan +0.3 139.5 51% 76–78 ✓
Temple @ Boston College -2.7 142.4 50% 69–72 ✗
Vermont @ Iona +3.2 129.1 74% 59–62 ✓
SMU @ Butler +2.7 151.6 51% 70–81 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Georgia Southern +3.5 147.3 72% 75–80 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Penn State +11.4 147.4 82% 64–86 ✓
American University @ North Carolina +10.9 141.9 78% 55–107 ✓
Marquette @ Maryland +6.9 139.6 51% 78–74 ✗
Ohio @ Memphis +16.3 151.0 85% 70–94 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Northwestern +32.8 148.7 91% 58–67 ✓
Georgia @ Georgia Tech +2.6 157.0 49% 77–69 ✗
West Virginia @ Pittsburgh +15.3 147.2 83% 62–86 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Pennsylvania +4.5 139.1 70% 86–69 ✗
Washington State @ Iowa -0.6 158.0 51% 66–76 ✗
Samford @ North Alabama +17.3 149.9 76% 97–96 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Gonzaga +22.4 155.5 86% 54–113 ✓
Arizona @ Wisconsin +4.9 149.3 66% 88–103 ✓
Ohio State @ Texas A&M +7.2 135.3 60% 64–78 ✓
Duquesne @ DePaul +20.0 149.1 86% 58–84 ✓
Long Island University @ California Baptist +5.4 141.0 79% 77–90 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Oregon State +20.0 132.1 89% 51–70 ✓
Lehigh @ UCLA +23.9 133.3 89% 45–85 ✓
NJIT @ Morgan State +10.6 133.0 85% 69–81 ✓
Presbyterian @ Kennesaw State +5.4 151.1 68% 67–85 ✓
Wofford @ Duke +26.7 141.3 89% 35–86 ✓
Charleston Southern @ VMI +9.7 141.1 84% 69–80 ✓
Lafayette @ Cornell +7.5 146.1 77% 71–81 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Columbia +9.3 140.4 76% 63–77 ✓
Richmond @ Bucknell +13.0 142.8 85% 76–80 ✓
Wagner @ Seton Hall +5.2 114.6 75% 28–54 ✓
Wake Forest @ Xavier +7.4 148.4 73% 60–75 ✓
Youngstown State @ Syracuse +0.9 148.0 56% 95–104 ✓
Dartmouth @ Boston University +2.4 142.4 62% 50–78 ✓
UT Martin @ Longwood +8.6 143.9 81% 62–64 ✓
Notre Dame @ Georgetown +4.6 150.8 70% 84–63 ✗
Tulsa @ Missouri State +2.3 146.7 69% 106–111 ✓
Radford @ Evansville +5.9 148.2 72% 92–81 ✗
Saint Peter's @ UMBC +1.4 143.0 46% 69–61 ✗
South Carolina State @ Bethune-Cookman +4.0 143.0 63% 62–75 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Western Illinois +7.0 131.5 76% 61–63 ✓
Indiana State @ Ball State +14.7 140.6 83% 94–84 ✗
Stetson @ Oklahoma +23.8 143.6 88% 64–85 ✓
La Salle @ Drexel +5.3 132.2 65% 71–68 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Tennessee Tech +1.2 151.9 56% 83–58 ✗
South Carolina @ Indiana +9.7 139.6 75% 71–87 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Arkansas State — — — 49–59 —
Northwestern State @ Rice +5.0 132.7 75% 75–77 ✓
Jackson State @ Vanderbilt +28.8 150.2 91% 81–94 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Cleveland State -0.7 135.0 50% 63–71 ✗
Idaho State @ San Diego -0.2 130.9 53% 78–66 ✓
Idaho @ BYU +27.6 150.6 90% 71–95 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Canisius -6.4 141.5 28% 76–58 ✓
Texas State @ Abilene Christian -9.3 134.2 22% 60–72 ✗
Colorado State @ Ole Miss +3.9 141.5 65% 69–84 ✓
Mercer @ South Alabama +13.8 133.7 88% 66–75 ✓
Murray State @ Middle Tennessee +16.6 141.5 84% 88–67 ✗
Toledo @ Detroit Mercy -5.5 157.5 37% 82–67 ✓
Le Moyne @ St. Bonaventure +26.8 148.3 91% 52–71 ✓
George Mason @ East Carolina +0.6 129.1 58% 77–78 ✓
Little Rock @ UTSA +6.8 146.5 72% 81–64 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Incarnate Word +14.4 153.3 88% 64–92 ✓
Yale @ Minnesota +4.1 137.4 67% 56–59 ✓
New Hampshire @ Sacred Heart +7.3 146.1 75% 63–80 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Davidson +13.1 152.8 83% 70–76 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Winthrop +6.0 150.3 77% 89–87 ✗
Green Bay @ Providence +12.1 140.5 72% 65–79 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas +39.4 146.8 91% 43–89 ✓
Portland @ Long Beach State +11.1 140.0 85% 63–61 ✗
Oakland @ Kansas +21.2 137.4 89% 57–78 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Northeastern +0.4 136.7 64% 62–80 ✓
Bowling Green @ Michigan State +20.2 143.2 86% 72–86 ✓
Liberty @ Florida Atlantic +2.0 147.2 67% 74–77 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.