We need the funk. "Give Up the Funk" - Parliament
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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53–15 on winners spread MAE 9.3 68 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida A&M @ Kentucky +25.4 136.2 91% 68–88 ✓
Youngstown State @ Central Michigan -3.6 154.3 33% 76–65 ✓
Saint Francis @ Robert Morris +13.1 141.1 87% 66–77 ✓
Ohio @ Delaware +4.0 141.0 69% 95–76 ✗
Binghamton @ Niagara +11.4 132.0 85% 67–73 ✓
Murray State @ Middle Tennessee +5.6 139.3 70% 67–83 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Florida Atlantic +19.5 139.1 91% 52–67 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Cincinnati +9.2 157.2 78% 54–72 ✓
Mercer @ Troy +10.9 141.4 83% 82–79 ✗
Incarnate Word @ Florida International +6.4 139.0 74% 74–79 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Ball State +12.0 139.1 87% 54–58 ✓
Stetson @ UCF +13.4 136.8 87% 58–73 ✓
Navy @ VCU +5.1 142.0 69% 52–74 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Northern Iowa +3.1 134.9 59% 52–62 ✓
Bucknell @ Richmond +7.7 135.8 77% 71–81 ✓
New Hampshire @ Brown +6.0 130.2 71% 51–67 ✓
Canisius @ Florida Gulf Coast +14.0 142.9 88% 81–84 ✓
Southern Utah @ Colorado +12.9 157.4 86% 78–86 ✓
UT Arlington @ California -0.3 123.3 44% 51–73 ✗
Michigan @ North Carolina +3.9 155.1 65% 76–80 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State -1.8 137.2 44% 70–68 ✓
Samford @ Belmont +3.9 151.0 65% 56–79 ✓
New Mexico State @ Kent State +5.6 142.6 69% 63–73 ✓
Clemson @ Georgia Tech +2.6 145.7 64% 79–66 ✗
McNeese @ Houston +25.6 130.4 91% 44–83 ✓
Louisiana @ Texas +16.5 148.8 88% 72–100 ✓
Southern @ SE Louisiana +2.5 149.1 58% 62–80 ✓
Alabama State @ Memphis +22.5 148.2 91% 61–83 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Tulane +17.7 138.8 91% 63–84 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Saint Louis +6.2 148.2 74% 69–67 ✗
East Tennessee State @ LSU +12.0 138.5 87% 68–72 ✓
Bellarmine @ Evansville +0.1 132.1 51% 61–73 ✓
Notre Dame @ Florida State +1.5 141.6 56% 72–73 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Wyoming -12.5 134.3 15% 66–54 ✓
Maine @ Ohio State +17.2 147.1 89% 61–95 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Purdue +25.0 149.7 91% 53–74 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Arkansas +19.2 158.0 90% 51–85 ✓
TCU @ Utah +8.6 140.0 74% 75–71 ✗
Auburn @ Washington +3.4 139.7 62% 84–61 ✗
Sacramento State @ Cal State Fullerton +1.5 137.9 57% 49–59 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ UTEP +5.7 141.4 72% 62–75 ✓
Arizona State @ San Francisco -3.2 136.7 36% 60–97 ✗
Denver @ Oregon State +4.1 138.5 68% 52–57 ✓
Tulsa @ Loyola Marymount +10.0 143.3 83% 64–76 ✓
Idaho @ Long Beach State +5.5 148.9 73% 75–82 ✓
Colorado State @ USC -1.1 141.4 48% 64–73 ✗
Holy Cross @ Sacred Heart +7.1 141.2 75% 62–66 ✓
Towson @ Bryant +3.1 150.4 64% 59–69 ✓
VMI @ Fordham +12.4 150.9 88% 77–80 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Indiana State +15.5 157.1 88% 67–57 ✗
Siena @ American University +8.1 136.8 78% 64–61 ✗
Chicago State @ Minnesota +4.6 136.6 67% 55–58 ✓
North Florida @ Bethune-Cookman -4.5 145.9 35% 87–85 ✓
Cornell @ Colgate +2.4 159.8 62% 91–80 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Eastern Kentucky +1.6 132.7 55% 64–68 ✓
Jackson State @ Stephen F. Austin +11.5 151.4 85% 69–80 ✓
Little Rock @ Arkansas State +5.9 136.7 72% 75–77 ✓
Lindenwood @ Utah Tech +12.7 147.8 88% 64–95 ✓
Iona @ SMU -14.2 140.7 14% 81–85 ✗
San Diego @ Cal State Northridge -1.9 145.0 40% 78–83 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Vanderbilt +12.6 141.4 86% 62–70 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Penn State +12.2 145.3 87% 68–77 ✓
Boise State @ Santa Clara -0.8 135.1 42% 58–73 ✗
Portland @ UC Riverside +1.8 147.4 60% 65–76 ✓
Akron @ Bradley +8.2 129.5 74% 55–74 ✓
Seattle U @ Utah State +7.4 151.3 76% 56–84 ✓
Stony Brook @ West Virginia +23.7 139.7 91% 64–75 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Maryland +19.2 132.7 90% 45–75 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.