Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -225 MER +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +3 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -12.2 (-15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (+18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -9.9 (-12.9) | 139.2 (+21.8) | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -9.0 (-12.0) | 137.5 (+23.5) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -10.9 (-13.9) | 141.4 (+19.6) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -11.0 (-14.0) | 141.0 (+20.0) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2021 | TROY 69 – 65 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#70) | -0.6 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#110) | -0.76 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#96) | -0.78 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#153) | 0.444 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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