Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +4 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -8.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -6.8 (-10.8) | 142.3 (-8.3) | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -9.3 (-13.3) | 142.3 (-8.3) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -7.4 (-11.4) | 143.3 (-9.3) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -7.4 (-11.4) | 142.7 (-8.7) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2022 | MER 82 – 79 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#202) | -5.6 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#134) | -0.67 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#144) | -0.64 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#115) | 0.421 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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