Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -800 JKST +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +11 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -13.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -11.8 (-0.8) | 151.7 (-2.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -13.9 (-2.9) | 150.0 (-1.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -11.5 (-0.5) | 151.4 (-2.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -11.6 (-0.6) | 152.2 (-3.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-4 | 7-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-14 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#188) | -9.3 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#194) | -1.82 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#207) | -3.02 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#234) | 0.438 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.9% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 24.1% | 24.9% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 14.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 58.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.8% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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