Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | PSU -1200 QUIN +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -13.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -13.3 (-4.3) | 143.8 (+1.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -13.2 (-4.2) | 142.8 (+2.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -12.2 (-3.2) | 145.3 (-0.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -13.2 (-4.2) | 145.1 (-0.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | QUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#49) | 1.2 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#55) | 0.32 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#55) | 0.44 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#62) | 0.475 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | QUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 41.5% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.76 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 18.3% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 15.1% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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