Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -32.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -10000 NOLA +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +21 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -37.6 (-16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -31.6 (-10.6) | 147.5 (-20.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -27.1 (-6.1) | 148.1 (-21.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -25.0 (-4.0) | 149.7 (-22.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -31.6 (-10.6) | 147.8 (-20.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 6-9 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 80.1 |
| Massey | 16.3 (#7) | -16.5 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.72 (#2) | -2.83 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.68 (#2) | -3.65 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.707 (#1) | 0.418 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 43.3 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 25.1% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 59.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.7% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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