Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -34.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -20000 MCN +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +39 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -39.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -32.8 (+6.2) | 127.3 (-0.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -27.3 (+11.7) | 124.6 (+2.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -25.6 (+13.4) | 130.4 (-3.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -33.9 (+5.1) | 127.0 (+0.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 11-23 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 6-12 |
| Home | 16-2 | 6-8 |
| Away | 11-0 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.5 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 22.7 (#2) | -11.6 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.52 (#6) | -2.45 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.71 (#4) | -4.08 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.646 (#9) | 0.438 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 25.5% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.9% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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