Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -8000 UNCA +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +34 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -19.8 (+14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (-22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -20.9 (+13.1) | 155.3 (-19.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -19.7 (+14.3) | 155.3 (-19.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -19.2 (+14.8) | 158.0 (-22.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -19.1 (+14.9) | 157.2 (-21.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 16-2 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-0 |
| Away | 2-8 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 13.7 (#14) | -1.2 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#17) | 0.04 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.76 (#12) | -0.32 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#13) | 0.484 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.3% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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