Betting Lines
| Spread | BELL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | EVAN +160 BELL -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +12 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | EVAN -0.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BELL -0.5 (+12.5) | 126.8 (+7.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EVAN -0.1 (+11.9) | 132.1 (+1.9) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EVAN -0.3 (+11.7) | 133.0 (+1.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EVAN -1.1 (+10.9) | 128.9 (+5.1) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | EVAN 70 – 61 BELL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 9-9 |
| Home | 3-10 | 8-6 |
| Away | 1-14 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#315) | -4.0 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#303) | -1.10 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#305) | -1.33 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#329) | 0.479 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.3% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 26.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 6.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.1% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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