Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | USC -138 CSU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +9 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -1.6 (+10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -1.7 (+10.7) | 142.3 (-5.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -0.4 (+9.4) | 139.5 (-2.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -1.1 (+10.1) | 141.4 (-4.4) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -0.8 (+9.8) | 142.7 (-5.7) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#96) | 6.2 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#73) | 1.03 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#87) | 1.15 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#93) | 0.540 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 5.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 16.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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