Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | INST -2000 NIU +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +10 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -19.2 (-29.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.9 (-35.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -14.4 (-24.4) | 154.6 (-30.6) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -15.5 (-25.5) | 157.1 (-33.1) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -16.7 (-26.7) | 157.7 (-33.7) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -17.0 (-27.0) | 156.0 (-32.0) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2023 | INST 90 – 67 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 5-7 |
| Away | 7-6 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#85) | -8.7 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#89) | -2.13 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#94) | -2.45 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#74) | 0.416 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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