Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | NIU +300 INST -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +23 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -0.6 (-22.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.5 (-14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -0.9 (-22.1) | 162.7 (-5.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIU -1.1 (-24.1) | 161.6 (-4.6) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIU -1.3 (-24.3) | 162.0 (-5.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -0.2 (-22.8) | 164.5 (-7.5) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2022 | NIU 67 – 57 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 17-3 |
| Home | 5-9 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-11 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#96) | 11.2 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#27) | 2.84 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.43 (#28) | 3.54 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.649 (#16) | 0.639 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 52.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 41.8% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 62.3% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 20.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.4% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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