Betting Lines
| Spread | ORST -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | ORST -350 DEN +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +5 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | ORST -5.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-29.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORST -6.0 (-1.0) | 138.1 (-29.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORST -4.9 (+0.1) | 134.0 (-25.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORST -4.1 (+0.9) | 138.5 (-29.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORST -4.6 (+0.4) | 139.9 (-30.9) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.5 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#231) | -3.4 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#207) | -0.34 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#229) | -0.88 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#237) | 0.443 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 52.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 33.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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