Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -37.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | UK -20000 FAMU +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +20 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UK -34.6 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (+23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -34.0 (-14.0) | 137.4 (+18.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -27.7 (-7.7) | 135.3 (+20.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -25.4 (-5.4) | 136.2 (+19.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -33.6 (-13.6) | 137.0 (+19.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 7-22 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-4 | 4-7 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 58.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#19) | -16.5 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#58) | -3.01 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#61) | -3.78 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#53) | 0.389 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 36.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 40.6% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 26.6% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 62.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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