Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | USU -500 SEA +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +28 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | USU -8.4 (+19.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (-15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -6.9 (+21.1) | 153.3 (-13.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -6.4 (+21.6) | 149.7 (-9.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -7.4 (+20.6) | 151.3 (-11.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -6.5 (+21.5) | 151.4 (-11.4) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#30) | 3.1 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#21) | 1.27 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.52 (#15) | 1.27 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.650 (#7) | 0.547 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 42.7% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 79.2% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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