Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | SF +170 ASU -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +37 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -4.4 (+41.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (+20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -1.8 (+38.8) | 138.4 (+18.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -3.2 (+40.2) | 136.7 (+20.3) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -2.2 (+39.2) | 137.0 (+20.0) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -1.2 (+38.2) | 139.7 (+17.3) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2023 | ASU 72 – 61 SF |
| Dec 19, 2021 | SF 66 – 65 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#130) | 11.5 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#101) | 2.55 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#113) | 4.00 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#129) | 0.611 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 40.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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