Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
| Money | ASU -145 SF +122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +11 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | SF -3.0 (+14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -0.4 (+11.4) | 132.2 (+0.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -1.3 (+9.7) | 132.6 (+0.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -0.2 (+10.8) | 132.9 (+0.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -1.0 (+10.0) | 133.3 (-0.3) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2022 | SF 97 – 60 ASU |
| Dec 19, 2021 | SF 66 – 65 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-5 |
| Home | 10-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#138) | 10.6 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#48) | 1.10 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#43) | 2.08 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#52) | 0.590 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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