Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
Desert Financial Arena · December 3, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread ASU -2.5 Home covered
O/U 137.0 Under
Money ASU -145 / SF +122
Model Predictions
Spread Total ASU win
Actual ASU +11 133 Won
Massey SF -3.0 (+14.0) — —
Massey Totals — 126.9 (+6.1) —
Bradley-Terry — — 89% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 92% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ SF -0.4 (+11.4) 132.2 (+0.8) 57% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML ASU -1.3 (+9.7) 132.6 (+0.4) 53% ✓
Baseline ML ASU -0.2 (+10.8) 132.9 (+0.1) 55% ✓
Baseline Plus ML ASU -1.0 (+10.0) 133.3 (-0.3) 58% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 22, 2022 SF 97 – 60 ASU
Dec 19, 2021 SF 66 – 65 ASU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ASU SF
Overall 14-18 23-11
Conference 8-12 11-5
Home 10-5 14-2
Away 3-8 6-6
Neutral 1-5 3-3
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L4 L2
Avg Pts For 69.0 76.2
Avg Pts Against 74.0 66.8
Massey 1.7 (#138) 10.6 (#36)
Bradley-Terry 1.99 (#48) 1.10 (#88)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.08 (#43) 2.08 (#68)
RPI 0.602 (#52) 0.590 (#60)
Shooting & Four Factors ASU SF
FG% 41.4% 47.3%
3PT% 27.9% 32.5%
REB / G 36.3 35.0
OREB / G 9.2 11.3
AST / TO 1.19 1.05
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.3% 52.8%
TOV% 15.0% 20.1%
ORB% 23.4% 36.2%
FT Rate 21.4% 17.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.7% 45.8%
Opp TOV% 21.0% 22.6%
DRB% 66.8% 74.3%
Opp FT Rate 16.5% 25.9%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.