Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | ASU +130 SF -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +1 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -2.6 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -1.5 (+0.5) | 134.6 (-3.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -1.3 (+0.3) | 134.6 (-3.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -1.0 (+0.0) | 132.2 (-1.2) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -0.3 (-0.7) | 134.4 (-3.4) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2023 | ASU 72 – 61 SF |
| Dec 22, 2022 | SF 97 – 60 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-6 |
| Home | 9-6 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 67.5 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#138) | 8.9 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#122) | 3.74 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#164) | 4.79 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#93) | 0.658 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 58.0% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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