Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -1200 STET +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +15 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -14.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -15.4 (-0.4) | 138.1 (-7.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -13.4 (+1.6) | 136.8 (-5.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -14.2 (+0.8) | 137.5 (-6.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -12.9 (+2.1) | 137.8 (-6.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2023 | STET 85 – 82 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#62) | -1.4 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#64) | -0.11 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#46) | -0.13 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#56) | 0.489 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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