Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -1000 STET +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STET +3 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -13.8 (-16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (+26.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -10.6 (-13.6) | 141.4 (+25.6) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -11.4 (-14.4) | 140.3 (+26.7) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -12.6 (-15.6) | 140.5 (+26.5) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -12.4 (-15.4) | 140.1 (+26.9) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2022 | UCF 73 – 58 STET |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-5 |
| Home | 11-8 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#85) | -1.0 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#26) | -0.15 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.10 (#27) | -1.03 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#50) | 0.511 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 11.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 11.7% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 62.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.4% | 12.1% |
Game Analysis
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