Betting Lines
| Spread | LSU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | LSU -1000 ETSU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +4 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | LSU -15.1 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -11.3 (-7.3) | 136.3 (+3.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -15.0 (-11.0) | 132.3 (+7.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -12.0 (-8.0) | 138.5 (+1.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -12.3 (-8.3) | 140.6 (-0.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-8 | 7-9 |
| Away | 0-9 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#104) | -6.3 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#26) | -2.95 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.06 (#25) | -3.65 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#45) | 0.345 (#358) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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