Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | SMU +400 IONA -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +4 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | IONA -16.5 (+20.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+29.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -14.7 (+18.7) | 142.2 (+23.8) | 16% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -10.9 (+14.9) | 141.3 (+24.7) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -14.2 (+18.2) | 140.7 (+25.3) | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -14.5 (+18.5) | 141.3 (+24.7) | 16% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 17-3 |
| Home | 7-9 | 11-1 |
| Away | 1-11 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 8-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#264) | 11.5 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#311) | 1.40 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#286) | 1.79 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#298) | 0.597 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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