Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 120.5 Over |
| Money | CAL -120 UTA +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +22 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -1.8 (+20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 115.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -0.5 (+21.5) | 122.5 (+1.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -1.5 (+20.5) | 127.2 (-3.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -0.3 (+22.3) | 123.3 (+0.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -0.2 (+22.2) | 125.1 (-1.1) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 6-12 |
| Home | 3-14 | 6-8 |
| Away | 0-12 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L16 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.3 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 70.0 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#298) | -3.8 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.00 (#360) | -0.58 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.02 (#359) | -0.86 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#312) | 0.508 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 26.0% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.7% | 41.4% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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