Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | FOR -1200 VMI +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +3 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -14.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -12.5 (-9.5) | 146.6 (+10.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -10.0 (-7.0) | 145.9 (+11.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -12.4 (-9.4) | 150.9 (+6.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -12.7 (-9.7) | 150.2 (+6.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 2-16 |
| Home | 18-2 | 6-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#162) | -8.9 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#35) | -1.43 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#45) | -1.81 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#65) | 0.399 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.