Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | EKU +130 UNCG -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EKU +4 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | EKU -1.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EKU -1.0 (+3.0) | 132.0 (+0.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EKU -1.6 (+2.4) | 132.7 (-0.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EKU -1.8 (+2.2) | 133.6 (-1.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EKU -1.5 (+2.5) | 134.7 (-2.7) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2023 | UNCG 87 – 85 EKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EKU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#267) | -2.0 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#239) | -0.17 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#297) | -0.24 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#214) | 0.503 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EKU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.3% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.3% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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