Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG -250 EKU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +2 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -19.3 (-17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+29.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -12.0 (-10.0) | 143.7 (+28.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -14.8 (-12.8) | 141.6 (+30.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -14.3 (-12.3) | 143.8 (+28.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -14.4 (-12.4) | 146.4 (+25.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2022 | EKU 68 – 64 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-4 |
| Home | 11-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#86) | -8.3 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#44) | -1.96 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#44) | -3.08 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#61) | 0.343 (#356) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 43.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 12.0% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 15.2% |
Game Analysis
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