Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -29.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | TULN -8000 MVSU +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +21 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | TULN -23.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -17.7 (+3.3) | 138.8 (+8.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -21.6 (-0.6) | 142.0 (+5.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -20.3 (+0.7) | 141.0 (+6.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -18.2 (+2.8) | 139.6 (+7.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-11 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-3 | 4-6 |
| Away | 5-4 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 61.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#140) | -16.7 (#360) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#182) | -1.71 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#177) | -2.10 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#182) | 0.438 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 36.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 0.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 40.7% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 26.0% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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