Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | VCU -400 NAVY +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +22 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -4.2 (+17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -5.6 (+16.4) | 141.7 (-15.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -4.8 (+17.2) | 138.8 (-12.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -5.1 (+16.9) | 142.0 (-16.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -4.7 (+17.3) | 143.0 (-17.0) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-3 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.9 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#145) | 2.2 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#113) | 0.51 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#125) | 0.25 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#139) | 0.533 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 39.0% | 12.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.1% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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