Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | FAU -800 NKU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +15 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -24.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -21.1 (-6.1) | 137.6 (-18.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -17.8 (-2.8) | 136.7 (-17.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -19.5 (-4.5) | 139.1 (-20.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -21.3 (-6.3) | 138.5 (-19.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 14-6 |
| Home | 17-0 | 14-3 |
| Away | 11-3 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 64.7 |
| Massey | 14.5 (#11) | -4.6 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#31) | -0.35 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#38) | -0.41 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#33) | 0.455 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.1% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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