Why don't you get back into bed. "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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51–13 on winners spread MAE 10.0 64 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Chicago State @ Iowa State +23.2 130.4 91% 48–79 ✓
Davidson @ Alabama +4.3 147.2 68% 79–78 ✗
Xavier @ Villanova +2.5 135.9 60% 58–71 ✓
Morehead State @ IU Indianapolis -11.1 124.9 15% 80–52 ✓
Presbyterian @ Furman +11.0 143.2 86% 61–75 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ High Point +1.2 142.5 53% 52–55 ✓
Fresno State @ Utah +3.4 136.5 63% 50–55 ✓
Winthrop @ Mississippi State +8.2 142.7 79% 63–84 ✓
Elon @ Arkansas +17.9 153.4 89% 55–81 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Cincinnati +15.9 133.5 87% 67–76 ✓
American University @ George Mason +16.7 147.1 89% 44–67 ✓
Bradley @ Sam Houston -5.3 134.1 30% 87–61 ✓
Howard @ Harvard +3.1 149.4 66% 69–77 ✓
Southern @ Dayton +14.8 139.7 87% 60–69 ✓
UAlbany @ Lehigh +0.6 132.5 57% 68–52 ✗
Wright State @ NC State +12.1 152.4 86% 84–70 ✗
App State @ North Carolina +12.3 141.7 86% 50–70 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Bellarmine +2.7 137.2 61% 71–57 ✗
Manhattan @ The Citadel +4.9 153.0 70% 77–74 ✗
Marshall @ Toledo +6.2 155.2 74% 63–95 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Ball State +11.7 136.8 87% 55–75 ✓
Michigan State @ Oakland -6.4 140.9 30% 90–78 ✓
Delaware @ Iona +6.6 147.6 71% 72–83 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ South Alabama +12.0 140.0 86% 69–84 ✓
Air Force @ Tarleton State +5.8 121.6 68% 45–67 ✓
Grambling @ TCU +17.5 136.4 90% 55–90 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Iowa +22.5 155.4 90% 62–93 ✓
McNeese @ Kansas State +16.6 135.7 88% 59–74 ✓
UConn @ Marquette -3.2 148.6 37% 78–70 ✓
Portland State @ Utah State +18.5 143.4 90% 62–81 ✓
North Carolina Central @ UTEP +9.3 139.4 82% 61–70 ✓
Norfolk State @ New Mexico +4.5 154.6 66% 54–68 ✓
Utah Valley @ Washington -2.2 140.5 38% 68–52 ✓
Pepperdine @ Oregon +13.3 147.3 87% 59–68 ✓
Georgia State @ Georgia Tech +5.2 144.2 71% 62–72 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ California Baptist +10.6 148.0 83% 68–84 ✓
Santa Clara @ San José State +0.6 147.2 52% 79–57 ✗
Nicholls @ Oregon State -1.0 143.6 41% 61–83 ✗
Hartford @ Sacred Heart +6.2 148.6 70% 78–71 ✗
Campbell @ UNC Wilmington -3.0 132.0 33% 58–65 ✗
William & Mary @ Valparaiso +14.0 131.9 87% 66–88 ✓
Towson @ Navy +5.8 135.1 72% 69–52 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Notre Dame +6.8 138.6 74% 73–83 ✓
Alabama State @ Texas +24.4 137.0 91% 48–68 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Texas Tech +15.5 145.4 88% 46–78 ✓
Colgate @ Vermont +7.1 136.5 76% 68–78 ✓
Stony Brook @ Florida +12.8 141.6 86% 62–87 ✓
Delaware State @ Temple +20.4 137.6 91% 48–85 ✓
Army @ South Carolina +10.3 137.4 84% 75–105 ✓
Liberty @ Northern Iowa -0.9 131.2 47% 76–74 ✓
Idaho State @ UC Santa Barbara +16.1 139.5 89% 43–56 ✓
Bucknell @ Richmond +16.2 151.2 88% 50–81 ✓
St. Thomas @ Denver +0.2 148.2 50% 74–75 ✓
Western Carolina @ Charlotte +6.8 152.5 75% 82–98 ✓
Green Bay @ Minnesota +18.5 138.3 91% 56–72 ✓
Portland @ UC Davis +10.0 144.4 83% 65–60 ✗
Southern Illinois @ San Francisco +11.0 130.4 83% 52–64 ✓
Wyoming @ Stanford -8.8 143.6 21% 63–66 ✗
Murray State @ Auburn +10.5 149.9 80% 58–71 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Kentucky +14.7 149.1 87% 60–95 ✓
Chicago State @ Drake +17.4 139.7 90% 50–87 ✓
Troy @ Mercer +7.4 143.3 77% 69–65 ✗
Youngstown State @ West Virginia +12.5 133.8 84% 52–82 ✓
Pacific @ California +10.6 132.9 83% 53–73 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.