Betting Lines
| Spread | CBU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CBU +16 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | CBU -12.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CBU -9.5 (+6.5) | 145.8 (+6.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CBU -10.6 (+5.4) | 148.0 (+4.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CBU -11.0 (+5.0) | 147.7 (+4.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CBU -10.9 (+5.1) | 148.2 (+3.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CBU | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-9 |
| Home | 14-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#200) | -9.0 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#90) | -1.60 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#116) | -2.55 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#134) | 0.425 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CBU | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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