Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -28.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +31 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -27.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -26.3 (+4.7) | 155.0 (+0.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -22.5 (+8.5) | 155.4 (-0.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -26.0 (+5.0) | 154.4 (+0.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -26.9 (+4.1) | 156.4 (-1.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-4 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-1 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 15.2 (#15) | -8.0 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#55) | -1.84 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#40) | -2.65 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#88) | 0.420 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 2.08 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 11.7% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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