Betting Lines
| Spread | UTEP -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
| Money | UTEP -900 NCCU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTEP +9 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UTEP -11.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTEP -11.6 (-2.6) | 139.1 (-8.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTEP -9.3 (-0.3) | 139.4 (-8.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTEP -10.2 (-1.2) | 139.6 (-8.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTEP -10.5 (-1.5) | 140.4 (-9.4) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTEP | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#162) | -6.9 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#158) | -1.36 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#158) | -2.35 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#211) | 0.398 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTEP | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 26.8% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 33.7% |
Game Analysis
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