Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +2 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | LIB -0.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.9 (+25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -0.6 (-1.4) | 129.7 (+20.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -0.9 (-1.1) | 131.2 (+18.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -0.9 (-1.1) | 133.0 (+17.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -1.0 (-1.0) | 129.8 (+20.2) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#137) | 1.5 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#186) | 0.22 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#143) | -0.17 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#180) | 0.512 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 20.2% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 81.9% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.4% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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