Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -21.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +35 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -21.3 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (+15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -19.7 (+15.3) | 138.4 (+6.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -17.5 (+17.5) | 136.4 (+8.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -19.4 (+15.6) | 136.3 (+8.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -19.8 (+15.2) | 136.7 (+8.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 7-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#69) | -10.0 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#40) | -2.11 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#62) | -3.21 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#36) | 0.441 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 37.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 42.9 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 15.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 42.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 39.9% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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