Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -31.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | TEX -7000 ALST +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +20 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -28.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (-18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -27.0 (-7.0) | 135.9 (-19.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -24.4 (-4.4) | 137.0 (-21.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -27.5 (-7.5) | 136.6 (-20.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -29.3 (-9.3) | 135.4 (-19.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-3 | 6-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.6 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 14.4 (#20) | -9.4 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#41) | -2.00 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.89 (#39) | -2.80 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#55) | 0.418 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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